Assessing Probability and Challenges

I think I should provide a probability range between 5-10% if the pace continues through March. Right now, with 10 wins in 11 games, it suggests a good form, but the sample size is small.

I can create a quick model that estimates probability based on points per game. For example, if after 20 games a team has 2.3 points per game, the probability might be around 25-35%. After 10 games at 2.7 ppg, maybe it’s 10-15%.

However, I need to clarify that these are conditional probabilities.

Next, I'll offer a watchlist to sustain this challenge, highlighting key requirements and potential pitfalls.Analyzing Dark Horse Potential

I think it's fair to say they are a legit dark horse, but the odds are against them. To succeed, they need to maintain a scoring average of 2.2–2.3 points per game, improve their defense, and navigate through the Christmas period and January injuries. If by March they’re within 3 points of the top, that will be a good sign.

I’ll craft my answer concisely and will avoid disclaimers about browsing. Let's go ahead and write this out.